Kailua, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXHW60 PHFO 260603
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
803 PM HST Wed Mar 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A drier and more stable trade wind pattern is expected through
the weekend and into at least the middle of next week. Showers
should be mostly focused along windward and mauka locations
through the period. Nights will be cool in sheltered areas this
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

No changes were made. Previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Light trade wind showers were detected by radar this afternoon
along most windward coasts, but measurable rainfall has been
limited. Satellite showed plenty of clouds along windward and
mauka areas, and along the Kona coast. Winds were brisk,
averaging 10-20 mph with gusts 20-35 mph.

We are forecast to remain in a trade wind pattern for the
foreseeable future...at least for the next 7 days and likely
longer. Wind speeds will weaken slightly tomorrow and Friday,
then strengthen Saturday into Sunday as a weak cold front moves
through. This front will bring another shot of dry air to the
region. Dewpoints Friday through Monday should get into the mid
50s at times, allowing for cool nights for most areas. Another
plus from the dry air will be enhanced evaporation, helping to
eliminate standing water from all the recent flooding and perhaps
aid cleanup.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly dry and breezy northeast trade wind conditions will
prevail across the island chain over the next 24 h. As a result,
AIRMET Tango continues for low-level turbulence across leeward
areas of all islands. Brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are
possible in passing showers, mainly for windward sites.

&&

.MARINE...

A low pressure system east-northeast of the islands and a high
pressure system to the far north-northwest of the Hawaii region
will keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through the
week. A scatterometer pass this afternoon showed more extensive
small craft winds through the Kaiwi and Kauai Channels, which has
prompted an expansion of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) which
remains in effect through early Thursday morning. Winds will
briefly ease on Thursday and Friday, likely falling below SCA
thresholds. High pressure drops south from the Bering Sea through
this weekend, leading to a strengthening pressure gradient and
stronger trade winds through and north of the Hawaiian Islands.
Fresh to strong trade winds bring a return of SCA conditions from
Saturday into the first half of next week.

The forerunners of a small northwest swell have reached the northwest
buoys and will arrive along the north shores tonight. The medium
period swell is expected to peak around 3 feet on Thursday before
gradually declining through the weekend. For east facing shores, short
period wind wave energy from northeasterly trade winds will hold into
the weekend. Strengthening northeasterly winds this weekend and
a swath of gales associated with a low around one thousand miles
northeast of the islands will lead to the potential for high surf
advisories along north and east facing shores from Sunday into
early next week.

For south facing shores, small background energy pulses will bring
surf heights back above flat conditions Thursday evening into early
next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Maalaea
Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo
Channel.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Walsh
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Quesada